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In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical – and accessible – plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse gas emissions in time to avoid a climate catastrophe. Bill Gates has spent a decade investigating the causes and effects of climate change.“I don’t think it’s realistic to say that people are utterly going to change their lifestyle because of concerns about climate,” Gates said to Akshat Rathi in an episode of the Bloomberg podcast, “Zero,” which published on Thursday. The only real solution, Gates said, is to innovate better and cheaper alternatives.He created Breakthrough Energy, an umbrella organization that includes a suite of investment, innovation and policy initiatives; is the founder of TerraPower, a company developing next generation nuclear power and energy storage; and has committed to offsetting his carbon emissions through the purchase of green …
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Bill Gates, entrepreneur, philanthropist, and author of How To Avoid A Climate Disaster, stops by to discuss the steps we need to take to halt climate change. He’s joined by Emmanuel Acho, Mitch \u0026 Greg (ASAP Science), Prajakta Koli, Destin Sandlin, and Ariel Bissett.
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and …
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BEST SELLER • In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a we-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get …
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Date Published: 2/19/2022
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How To Avoid A Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have …
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BEST SELLER • In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a we-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get …
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates: 9780593081853
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BEST SELLER • In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a we-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get …
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster – Wikipedia
How to Avo a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need is a 2021 book by Bill Gates. In it, Gates presents what he learned in …
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates review
This would include investing in nuclear fusion as well as nuclear fission; thermal energy (creating energy from hot rocks underground); carbon …
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Date Published: 9/11/2022
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My new climate book is finally here | Bill Gates
To avo a climate disaster, we have to get to zero greenhouse gas emissions. · We need to deploy the tools we already have, like solar and wind, …
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Date Published: 10/26/2022
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Climate-and-energy | Bill Gates
How to Avo a Climate Disaster. My book about climate change and the solutions … Everything you need to know about avoing the worst climate outcomes.
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and …
In this book Bill Gates offers a singles and doubles approach to mitigating climate change rather than a home run, which he centers around the long-term goal of …
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates – Waterstones
An antote to the gloomier forecasts of impending climate disaster, Bill Gates’ sprightly and infectiously proactive book offers practicable, …
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How To Avoid A Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have And The Breakthroughs We Need
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates: 9780593081853
Praise
“Gates gathers advice from experts while laying out his vision for technological innovations that could reduce greenhouse gases and stop the warming of the planet. If even some of his plans work, this might be the most important book of the year.” —CNN
“One of the most accessible, practical, and interesting books on the topic to emerge since Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth.” —Oprah Daily
“The most comprehensible explanation for what’s driving our warming planet; how to measure the impact of the myriad contributions to this staggering and seemingly incalculable problem; and ultimately how to go about finding more effective approaches to each of them. It’s the closest thing I’ve seen to a how-to guide for addressing the climate crisis.” —Clinton Leaf, Fortune
“How to Avoid a Climate Disaster presents ideas with the methodical approach of a college textbook . . . Remarkably, given the state of the world, it is an optimistic, can-do sort of book, chock-full of solutions.” —Christina Binkley, The Wall Street Journal Magazine
“The most refreshing aspect of this book is its bracing mix of cold-eyed realism and number-crunched optimism . . . Ultimately his book is a primer on how to reorganise the global economy so that innovation focuses on the world’s gravest problems. It is a powerful reminder that if mankind is to get serious about tackling them, it must do more to harness the one natural resource available in infinite quantity—human ingenuity.” —The Economist
“The author’s enthusiasm and curiosity about the way things work is infectious. He walks us through not just the basic science of global warming, but all the ways that our modern lives contribute to it . . . Gates seems energized by the sheer size and complexity of the challenge. That’s one of the best things about the book—the can-do optimism and conviction that science in partnership with industry are up to the task.” —Richard Schiffman, The Christian Science Monitor
“In this wonklike and persuasive book, Gates takes his environmental activism a bridge further, laying out an ambitious plan to reduce greenhouse emissions to zero by 2050. Drawing on data from researchers, policymakers, and engineers, Gates advocates for solutions both scientific (like developing alternative fuels) and personal (like increasing civic engagement in environmental justice issues). If you feel a radical shred of hope reading these galvanizing pages, dare to let in—without hope, we’ll get nowhere.” —Esquire
“With the help of experts in fields such as physics, engineering, chemistry, finance and politics, the technologist and philanthropist offers a practical and accessible plan for getting the world to zero greenhouse gas emissions and averting climate catastrophe.” —Barbara VanDenburgh, USA Today
“How to Avoid a Climate Disaster is clear, concise on a colossal subject, and intelligently holistic in its approach to the problem. Gates may not be the perfect messenger, but he has written a fine primer on how to get ourselves out of this mess.” —Adama Vaughan, New Scientist
“Bill Gates has a plan to save the world . . . While acknowledging that the challenge is daunting, and how we make things, grow things, move around, keep cool and stay warm will all need to fundamentally change, Gates argues that wholesale transformation is possible while maintaining lifestyles in high income countries and continuing to lift billions out of poverty.” —Greg Williams, Wired
“His expertise . . . is apparent in the book’s lucid explanations of the scientific aspects of climate change. The solutions he outlines are pragmatic and grounded in forward-thinking economic reasoning. Although he does not avoid the hard truths we must face as our climate changes, Gates remains optimistic and believes that we have the ability to avoid a total climate disaster.” —Miriam R. Aczel, Science
“Concise, straightforward . . . Gates has crafted a calm, reasoned, well-sourced explanation of the greatest challenge of our time and what we must change to avoid cooking our planet.” —Jeff Rowe, Associated Press
“A persuasive, optimistic strategy for reducing greenhouse emissions to zero by midcentury . . . Though Gates doesn’t shy away from acknowledging the daunting challenges ahead, his narrative contains enough confidence—and hard science and economics—to convince many readers that his blueprint is one of the most viable yet . . . supremely authoritative and accessible.” —Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“Those looking for an accessible review of how global warming can be countered will find this a handy—and maybe even hope-inspiring—guide.” —Publishers Weekly
“Gates has put his considerable wealth behind global health, educational, and economic initiatives and now turns his laser-like attention to this most existential of issues . . . He provides illuminating contexts for [his] perspectives and offers a treatise that is imperative, approachable, and useful.” —Booklist
Bill Gates: You’ll never solve climate change by asking people to consume less
Bill Gates, co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, speaks during the Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit in New York, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022. The first-ever Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit brings together climate leaders to showcase transformative solutions that repair and regenerate the planet.
Climate change is being fueled by the release of greenhouse gas emissions and those emissions are coming from every sector of the global economy: Electricity, manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, industrial processes. Collectively, greenhouse gas emissions have generally been climbing for decades. Activists often advocate using less and consuming less as one potential solution to climate change — degrowth, it’s often called.
This idea is quixotic, according to Bill Gates, who founded Breakthrough Energy, an investment fund for climate technology and innovation, in 2015 and published “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster” in 2021.
“I don’t think it’s realistic to say that people are utterly going to change their lifestyle because of concerns about climate,” Gates said to Akshat Rathi in an episode of the Bloomberg podcast, “Zero,” which published on Thursday. The interview was recorded in August before the Inflation Reduction Act was passed.
“You can have a cultural revolution where you’re trying to throw everything up, you can create a North Korean-type situation where the state’s in control. Other than immense central authority to have people just obey, I think the collective action problem is just completely not solvable,” Gates said.
Most individuals are not going to change their individual behavior in ways that make them less comfortable for the benefit of a global problem, the billionaire technologist said.
“Anyone who says that we will tell people to stop eating meat, or stop wanting to have a nice house, and we’ll just basically change human desires, I think that that’s too difficult,” Gates said. “You can make a case for it. But I don’t think it’s realistic for that to play an absolutely central role.”
Even if those countries and individuals who have enough abundance in their life and are able to cut back, that won’t be enough reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to sufficiently rein in climate change, Gates said. Gates himself pays $9 million a year to compensate for his own greenhouse gas emissions, he said.
“But just having a few rich countries, a few rich companies and a few rich individuals buy their way out so they can say they’re not part of the problem, that has nothing to do with solving the problem,” Gates said.
Also, there are a slew of other issues competing for attention and dollars, including the global pandemic, rising health care costs, aiding poor countries for issues besides climate change, and the war in Ukraine, too.
“People who are in the climate space may not realize how many things are competing for the modest amount of increased resources that society has,” Gates said. “And that not that many people are prepared to be worse off because of climate requirements.”
The solution, according to Gates, is creating better technological alternatives where it is the same price or cheaper to accomplish the same goal in a climate-conscious way. Gates has long talked about the space between the cost of how something is conventionally done and the way it should be do in a decarbonized way the “green premium.” To make meaningful change on climate change, that green premium has to slowly reduced and then eliminated in all sectors of the economy, according to Gates.
In an effort to close that green premium, Gates’ investment fund, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, puts money into early-stage startups that are working to to create new pathways for producing things or new ways of doing things.
In the course of the interview, Gates hinted that Breakthrough Energy Ventures would be raising a third fund by next year to continue to invest in and accelerate the development of these climate startups. He also indicated that Breakthrough Energy will likely raise money to invest in later stage companies, too. “Even as the ebullience in investing in tech and climate companies is down a bit, I still think we’ll be able to raise the money,” he told Rathi.
Also important, the path to decarbonization is not always a straight path of progress away from fossil fuels. The war in Ukraine and Europe’s efforts to reduce its dependence on energy from Russia has shown that there might be temporary setbacks in larger decarbonization goals for the sake of taking care of people.
“When people say to me, ‘Hey, we love your climate stuff, because we can tell Putin we don’t need him.’ I say, ‘Yeah, 10 years from now. Call him up and tell him you don’t need him,'” Gates said.
Between now and then, the European Union may need to fall back on fossil fuels. “Should you reopen coal plants? Probably. These pragmatics are pretty important. Should that Netherlands’ gas field be reopened? Maybe so. It’s a very tough set of tradeoffs. Very unexpected,” Gates said. “In the short range, you just have to find any solution, even if that means emissions are going to go up. The sooner that war ends, the better. But there’s a lot of considerations that go into how to bring it to an end.”
In the long run, however, finding new ways of supporting people is the only feasible solution, according to Gates. “I’m looking at what the world has to do to get to zero, not using climate as a moral crusade,” he said.
Here’s what Bill Gates is doing — and not doing — to help fight climate change
Climate change is by definition a global challenge, and in his new book, “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” Bill Gates describes solutions that require an all-hands response including government, companies, institutions and individuals.
But as one of the world’s wealthiest people, an outspoken booster of tech innovation, the largest private owner of U.S. farmland, and someone who admits to having a Paul Bunyan-sized carbon footprint, Gates is also taking steps personally to help address greenhouse gas emissions.
He created Breakthrough Energy, an umbrella organization that includes a suite of investment, innovation and policy initiatives; is the founder of TerraPower, a company developing next generation nuclear power and energy storage; and has committed to offsetting his carbon emissions through the purchase of green aviation fuel and paying for direct-air carbon removal.
In the book, Gates also shares what other individuals can do to fight climate change.
When I talk to people about climate change, I almost always get asked the same question: What can I do to help? Here are some actions individuals can take to move us closer to a zero-carbon future: https://t.co/ALBni7g2IP — Bill Gates (@BillGates) February 19, 2021
But even with Gates’ increasing investments in climate-related initiatives, critics point to shortcomings in his actions, such as his foundation’s struggles to make good on his commitment to divest from fossil fuel interests and his recent investment in a private jet company.
In a recent interview about his book, I asked Gates how he viewed his role in the climate crisis, the status of TerraPower and his thoughts on geoengineering — the controversial strategy of helping cool the planet through man-made alterations of the atmosphere. Here are five takeaways from that conversation:
He’s doing more on climate, but is still focused on global health through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
“That’s where we’re expert — our malaria team, our vaccine factory team — and that’s where we’re going to stay committed,” Gates said. “And the returns on that, the impact of that, is phenomenal. It also happens that as kids grow up more healthily, their parents choose to have less kids. And so between improving health and getting voluntary family planning tools out there, there is a connection with climate.
Also, our foundation, because of our agriculture work, is the biggest funder of climate adaptation. And that involves, in many cases, giving better seeds to these subsistence farmers so they can deal with drought and floods and higher temperatures.
…The foundation, through its health and reproductive health and agriculture work, it’s helping with climate, but that’s not the primary lens that that foundation money is spent on. It’s spent on saving lives, which is still, I think, a super, super important thing.”
While massive, Gates’ wealth — currently estimated at about $124 billion — can’t fix global warming.
“In the case of climate change, even the money that I have, if it was all applied in this direction — I put in $2 billion so far and I’ll put in another $2 billion over the next five years — that’s not enough to solve it. The role of high-risk investing and philanthropy and creating programs like [Breakthrough Energy’s] Fellows and Ventures and Catalyst … the role of philanthropy is to start things out, but it’s really government policy [that] has to carry this one.”
He has made limited investments in geoengineering, and that might be it.
“Geoengineering, we don’t know enough about what the side effects of that would be, and so it is interesting. And at the very least we should understand the problems so that nobody goes and does it unilaterally, because the atmosphere is this important shared resource.
In some extreme case, if things got a lot worse quicker than we expect, you might use it to buy yourself 10 or 20 years of the negative effects. But even then, getting the right type of government consensus on whether to do it would be difficult. Getting the people in the lab to figure out some of what works, what we don’t understand about global weather effects, I think that is constructive, but it’s very small money. Nothing compared to what I’m putting into other climate areas.
I certainly wouldn’t want to [pursue geoengineering projects] alone. I’d want to feel like there were at least some countries and a broad set of scientists and other people, otherwise it’s kind of like a mad scientist-type insanity. I feel like I’ve done my part to seed that field a little bit, and if others want to come in, fine. I don’t see myself going up dramatically.”
Widespread, green-tech advances in transportation, electricity, agriculture, construction and heating and cooling systems are next-level difficult, and Gates is studying up on innovation.
“If you just look at what’s happened in the chip and software and internet area, if you think anything like that can happen in the physical economy, that would confuse you. That type of speed of improvement and cost reduction, there’s no other domain like it. In fact, even in medicine, that moves way more slowly than the digital world. Even there, in 10 years time, you can do some very dramatic things. And that’s a very hopeful space.
But now we’re talking about a part of the economy that’s physically the largest. Very little R&D, very little change over the last few decades. And yet we’re saying in 30 years, we’re going to change it very, very dramatically. So it’s certainly way harder than the advances that have taken place in other areas.
I do think that the template of accelerating innovation by finding smart people and having risk capital and funding basic R&D and creating market-based price signals, I think those apply very much. I’ve had to learn about these new areas, reading a lot of books and meeting a lot of experts. But my sense of how you drive innovation is part of what I’m bringing to this, suggesting that we can have a plan to go along with the goal and the energy that the advocates are putting out.”
Gates is bullish on nuclear and eager for his Bellevue-based company TerraPower to build a demo plant.
“Congress created a program, the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, and TerraPower competed in that and won a large award for the $4 billion demo plant. And so over the next five years, that’ll get built, and it’ll show people the economics and the safety.
It’s the only from-scratch reactor design that’s been done going back to the 1950s, where we can use digital tools to simulate any problem and really optimize all these components. Because nuclear power, despite all the waste and safety and proliferation concerns, the main reason it’s failing right now is that the reactors have gotten so costly to build. They’re just not competitive, particularly in a place where natural gas is so incredibly inexpensive.”
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster
2021 book by Bill Gates
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need is a 2021 book by Bill Gates. In it, Gates presents what he learned in over a decade of studying climate change and investing in innovations to address global warming and recommends strategies to tackle it.[1]
Content [ edit ]
The book’s five parts [ edit ]
The book is organized into five parts. In part one (chapter 1), Gates explains why the world must completely eliminate greenhouse gas emissions (“getting to zero”), rather than simply reducing them. In part two (chapter 2) he discusses the challenges that will make achieving this goal very difficult. In part three (chapter 3) he outlines five pragmatic questions a reader can ask to evaluate any conversation they have about climate change. Part four (the longest part of the book, or chapters 4 through 9) analyzes currently-available technologies that can be utilized now to adapt to and mitigate climate change (“the solutions we have”) and those areas where innovation is needed to make climate-friendly technologies cost competitive with their fossil fuel counterparts (“the breakthroughs we need”). In the final part (chapters 10 through 12) Gates suggests specific steps that can be taken by government leaders, market participants and individuals to collectively avoid a climate disaster.
Electricity generation [ edit ]
Gates thinks that decarbonizing electricity should be a priority, because it would not only reduce emissions from coal and gas used to produce electricity, but also allow an accelerated shift to zero emission transportation like electric cars. He advocates increased innovation and investment in nuclear energy, and warns against overly focusing on wind and solar generation, due to their intermittent nature.
Roles for government and business [ edit ]
Gates argues that both governments and businesses have parts to play in fighting global warming. While he acknowledges that there is a tension between economic development and sustainability, he posits that accelerated innovation in green technology, particularly sustainable energy, would resolve it. He calls on governments to increase investment in climate research, but at the same time to incentivize firms to invest in green energy and decarbonization. Gates also urges governments to institute a carbon pricing regime that would account for all externalities involved in producing and using carbon-emitting energy.
Get to zero rather than simply reducing emissions [ edit ]
The book describes strategies for achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and emphasizes that many efforts to reduce emissions are actually counter-productive. For example, one can reduce CO 2 emissions in 2030 by replacing a coal-fired electrical power plant with a new natural gas power plant (since coal combustion emits twice as much CO 2 as natural gas, per unit of electricity). However, the natural gas plant will still be emitting CO 2 in 2050. Alternatively, Gates prefers we spend money on infrastructure that does not emit CO 2 in 2050. Gates warns, “Making reductions by 2030 the wrong way might actually prevent us from ever getting to zero.”[2]
Gates’ plan to get to net zero emissions [ edit ]
Gates introduces a plan for getting to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in Chapters 11 and 12 with several key points:
The world needs to get to zero emissions, not just reduce. [3]
The world needs to accelerate the development of technology that helps to resolve the climate change problem. [4]
The world needs to reduce the additional cost of green energy, which he refers to as the “green premium”. [5]
Federal, state and local governments can play a role to reduce emissions; in addition to private citizens.[6]
Publication [ edit ]
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster was published in hardcover by Alfred A. Knopf on February 16, 2021. An audiobook narrated by Gates and Wil Wheaton was released the same day. A large-print paperback edition was published on February 23, 2021.[7]
The book debuted at number one on The New York Times nonfiction best-seller list for the week ending February 20, 2021.[8]
Reception [ edit ]
In its starred review, Kirkus Reviews called it a “supremely authoritative and accessible plan for how we can avoid a climate catastrophe.”[9] Publishers Weekly agreed, calling it a “cogent” and “accessible” guide to countering climate change. However, the publication wrote that “not all of his ideas strike as politically feasible.”.[10] British newspaper The Economist praised Gates for the book’s “cold-eyed realism and number-crunched optimism.”[11]
Climate activist Leah Stokes described the book as largely “technology solutionism” when compared to other books published at a similar time such as Under a White Sky by Elizabeth Kolbert.[12]
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates review – why science isn’t enough
Bill Gates has changed our lives through his Microsoft software; he has improved countless lives through his foundation’s work to eliminate polio, TB and malaria; and now he proposes to help save our lives by combating climate change.
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster details the transformation necessary to reverse the effects of decades of catastrophic practices. We need, Gates calculates, to remove 51bn tonnes of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere every year. Failing to do so would cost more than the 1.5 million lives already lost to Covid-19 and could cause, he calculates, five times more deaths than the Spanish flu a century ago.
Ever the technologist, Gates sets out a spreadsheet for getting rid of those 51bn tonnes of greenhouse gases and achieving net carbon zero emissions by 2050. We would need to use more renewables and fewer fossil fuels (which would account for roughly 27% of the reduction needed in emissions), and change how we manufacture our goods (31%), grow our food (18%), travel (16%), and keep our buildings warm or cool (6%).
To achieve this, Gates provides a set of measures that could, if the UK government is listening, be transposed point by point into the formal agenda for the this year’s 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, Cop26, in Glasgow. He favours a green new deal, carbon pricing and heightened corporate responsibility. But Gates’s most important proposals involve new technologies. Just as his global health initiatives specialised in scientific solutions to combat disease – “show me a problem and I’d look for a technology to fix it”, he writes – his principal interest is in a technological breakthrough, the environmental equivalent of the Manhattan Project or the moon landing.
Gates is right about the scale and urgency of the problem. Global carbon emissions are now 65% higher than they were in 1990, and the term “global warming”, with its cosy overtones and accompanying stories of vintners making English and even Scottish champagne, does not adequately explain the intensity of storms, hurricanes, floods and severe droughts that are putting our planet on course to reach temperatures not seen in millions of years. Nor, as this book shows, does it satisfactorily reflect the biggest market failure in history and the most difficult global collective action problem the world has ever had to face.
Gates is right about the scale and urgency of the problem. Global carbon emissions are 65% higher than they were in 1990
Recognising that we cannot continue to deny electricity to 800 million of the world’s poorest people, his starting point is a plan to develop clean energy and cut its costs. Already, scientific advance has brought an astonishing reduction in the prices of solar, wind and wave energy, battery storage, electric vehicles, remote sensing monitoring and smart grids. But if we are to deliver affordable clean energy, we have to go much further. Gates demands what he calls “a renewable portfolio standard” of energy pricing and an immediate quintupling of climate-related research and development. This would include investing in nuclear fusion as well as nuclear fission; thermal energy (creating energy from hot rocks underground); carbon mineralisation; sea-based carbon removal to de-acidify the oceans; and direct air capture using scrubbing machines. Because even the most advanced solar panels currently convert only around a quarter of the sun’s energy, we need to address problems caused by the intermittency in the output of renewable energy, seasonal differences in its supply, and the high storage costs.
But we must also do more to capture emissions across the entire energy, transport and manufacturing sectors before they are released back to the atmosphere: to store them deep underground or in long-lived products such as concrete, or even by combining CO2 with calcium to produce limestone that could replace concrete.
Taken together these measures could meet the world’s objective of net carbon zero. But if politics was simply the application of reason and science to contemporary challenges, we might have not only solved the climate crisis by now but easily cured Covid-19 and other infectious diseases too.
So we have to ask why, when what needs to be done seems obvious, we have been so slow to act. And why, when it is more cost-effective for advanced economies to fund the total cost of mitigation and adaptation in the poorest countries than to suffer decades of worsening pollution, has the world simply failed to come together?
Gates clearly prefers science to politics – “I think more like an engineer than a political scientist” – and his touching, admirable faith in science and reason reminds me of a similar faith, this time in economic rationality, held by the great prewar economist John Maynard Keynes. His breakthrough in economic thinking offered a way out of the world depression and mass unemployment of the 1930s. But he was unable to persuade the political leaders of the day, and in frustration decried politics as “the survival of the unfittest”. “The difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones,” he concluded.
Gates is modest enough to say: “I don’t have a solution to the politics of climate change,” but he too knows that the solution he seeks is inextricably tied up in political decisions. Seemingly unanswerable scientific evidence can be torpedoed by powerful vested interests, or sidelined by bureaucratic indifference, or undermined by weak and incompetent political leaderships that make commitments they do not honour. Or they can be sabotaged by geopolitical rivalries or simply by nations clinging to old-fashioned and absolutist views of national sovereignty. As a result, the multilateral cooperation necessary to deal with a global problem does not emerge, and the very real tensions between economic and environmental priorities, and between the developed and developing world, go unresolved.
I look back on the Copenhagen climate change summit in 2009, when the UKand Europe’s enthusiasm for a deal failed to overcome both the reluctance of the US to make legally binding commitments, and the deep suspicion of China, India and the emerging economies of any obligations that they believed might threaten their development. So determined were they to avoid binding commitments that they rejected Europe’s offer to unilaterally bind itself to a 50% cut in its emissions. So bitter were the divisions that the Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd, who bravely stood out for an ambitious deal, exchanged an angry war of words with the Chinese negotiator.
The Paris accord of 2015 helped reverse many of the setbacks of Copenhagen. Agreement was reached on a global target: to prevent temperatures rising to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels – preferably 1.5 degrees. And we created new obligations on each country to report, monitor and continuously review their emissions. And while we could not bind the major economies to precise commitments on carbon reductions, they agreed to a ratcheting up of their ambitions every five years.
The importance of Glasgow’s Cop26 in November is that it is the first of these “ratchet” points, and, with 70 countries already committed to net zero carbon emissions, it represents the best opportunity in years to make progress. It also comes at a time when the science is more definitive, the technology more cost-effective, and the price of inaction far clearer. What’s more, President Biden and his new climate envoy John Kerry are promising a renewal of American leadership, and corporations and cities are on board for change.
The Unterer Theodulgletscher glacier above Zermatt is melting at a markedly increased rate. Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images
In addition to accepting Gates’s proposals for more funding of new technologies, I envisage advances in Glasgow on four major fronts. First, the globally coordinated fiscal stimulus we now need for a post-Covid economic recovery should have, at its heart, a green new deal, centred around a massive expansion in environmentally sustainable infrastructure and the creation of millions of much needed new jobs.
Second, new corporate laws should be agreed, to be applied worldwide, that ensure global companies disclose their carbon footprints, adopt impact-weighted accounting that would reveal the full environmental cost of their operations, and break with business-as-usual by publishing transition plans to a zero net carbon economy.
Third, we should advance the cause of carbon pricing by agreements to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies and by taking up Biden’s plan for border adjustment mechanisms that, for the first time, tax carbon-intensive imports and exports. And fourth, we could agree a big boost to nature-based solutions from afforestation to the better land use now championed by the World Resources Institute. In doing so we could finally make a reality of the promised $100bn green climate fund that was planned 10 years ago to collect and allocate payments for climate mitigation and adaptation in the developing world.
But to operationalise the Paris agreement – to limit warming to 1.5 degrees – requires countries to halve their CO2 emissions by 2030. So vested interests like big oil will have to be enlisted for change. The populist nationalist and protectionist rhetoric of irresponsible demagogues will have to be taken head on. And supporters of a stronger set of commitments will have to show why sharing sovereignty is in every nation’s self-interest, and that coordinated global action is indeed the only way to end the mismatch between the scale of the environmental problems we face and our current capacity to solve them. Success will come by demonstrating that the real power countries can wield to create a better world is not the power they can exercise over others but the power they can exercise with others.
How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need is published by Allen Lane. Gordon Brown’s Seven Ways to Change the World will be published by Simon & Schuster in June.
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How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need
3.7, rounded to 4.
First of all, I feel a little bad for Bill Gates. Unlike other billionaires who seem intent on living on Mars, Bill is actually interested in fixing the only planet we have. So kudos to him; give him a break, haters. That said, I really, really wish Bill had written this book as a collaborative effort with people like Bill McKibben or Elizabeth Kolbert or Hope Jahren, if for no other reason than to improve it’s style, but also to increase the number of ideas circulating in his
3.7, rounded to 4.
First of all, I feel a little bad for Bill Gates. Unlike other billionaires who seem intent on living on Mars, Bill is actually interested in fixing the only planet we have. So kudos to him; give him a break, haters. That said, I really, really wish Bill had written this book as a collaborative effort with people like Bill McKibben or Elizabeth Kolbert or Hope Jahren, if for no other reason than to improve it’s style, but also to increase the number of ideas circulating in his orbit. And why doesn’t he reference the fine work done by the Drawdown Project or by the many professors at Stanford and other universities working on possible solutions and quantifying the problem. Instead, he name checks a book written in 2010 by a British professor who died in 2016. It’s not a horrible book, but there are more modern, and maybe, probably, better ideas out there in 2021.
Also, I was a little stunned that he said he really didn’t begin to believe global warming was a real thing until 2006. What? I realize he was a little busy in the ’90’s, but still. I learned about the theory of atmospheric warming due to CO2 in my undergraduate chemistry class, and I’ve been following the literature since then, and following it intently since about 1988 (Hansen, NASA, all that jazz really got cranked up in ’88). And despite describing the dangers of sea level rise, he makes the rookie error of not noting that one of the greatest problems caused by CO2 in the oceans is acidification of seawater, which eventually could get bad enough to prevent corals building new coral, or sea creatures making shells or carapaces (think crabs, barnacles, clams, etc). And he seems to minimize or not really understand what a general ecological collapse brought on by global warming would mean for us humans.
Okay, so what did I like, now that I’m done carping? I like that he simplified things down to the CO2 budget of Earth (his 51 billion tons per year number), and breaks it out into its constituent parts by segment: manufacturing things: think steel, concrete, plastic; producing electricity; agriculture; transportation; and heating / cooling. And then he talks about how to address each sector. He takes a logical engineer’s approach to the issue, mostly* (*more on that later). He introduced me to an interesting concept while explaining energy production; the idea of density of power production. He points out that it takes a lot more space to produce energy from solar or wind than it does from a natural gas powered or nuclear powered electric plant. It’s a good point, but he doesn’t consider the counter argument, which is that all that space on the roofs of all those big box stores, or for that matter, residential rooftops, is not exactly in high demand for other uses. And he doesn’t spend nearly enough time on jobs, which could be a huge win-win for green energy.
Gates makes a good point about the need for steady energy production. Unless we are all going to have Tesla Walls to power our homes at night, and even bigger Tesla Walls for businesses and manufacturers, you have to have a way to supply electricity constantly. In the US, currently we do this mostly by burning fossil fuels (60%), with 20% from nuclear and 20% from renewables, including hydropower. So how to reduce the steady power from fossil fuels and replace it with non-CO2-producing sources? Gates throws out a lot of possibilities (modern, safer nuclear plants, geothermal, pumped hydro), but he doesn’t take the extra step to do the math that says, “Okay, we can get to 60% of power production with renewables, add 10% for geothermal and pumped hydro, 10% from batteries, keep the 20% from nuclear, and Presto!, you’re there!” That would have made me like the book a lot more. He simply presents a sort of laundry list, unlike the Drawdown Project that actually attempted to do the math in detail.
I’m an engineer and a math minor, and the above noted lack of specificity by Gates was frustrating to me. This is an optimization problem, and you could, even using today’s costs for solar, geothermal, wind, modern nuclear, etc, crank the numbers and come up with an answer including cost and relative % contribution from various sources. You could also get fancy, and project future costs for solar, etc, which are sure to go lower, and get a more refined answer, but Bill didn’t do this. I don’t get it; he has access to all the resources in the world given his status as 4th richest man around, and leading world philanthropist, and yet he didn’t work the math, or hire someone to work the math to come up with a prescriptive solution that could serve as a straw man for policy makers. And there are plenty of people who would have jumped at the chance to do that arithmetic.
Then he talks about “making things”, mainly concrete, steel, and plastic, and I was surprised to learn how much CO2 this produces. He spends a lot of time on “green premiums”, i.e., the cost to make carbon-neutral materials, which are interesting, because you learn how relatively cheap it is to do this with steel and plastic, less so with concrete. And much of the improvement in this area will stem from using carbon-neutral electricity, of course.
He talks next about agriculture and the need to reduce red meat intake, which in turn reduces cattle populations, which in turn reduces methane production. And methane is 28 times more potent as a warming gas compared to CO2, so this is important, and not a joke, as DeSantis-types try to make it (because after all, those wacky libs are talking about cow farts! How nuts are they, etc.). He makes a strong case for reducing red meat intake, which would be good for us anyway, and cutting meat intake in half could reduce global greenhouse emissions by about 2.5%, maybe more. He also shows how fertilizer causes problems, but he does not highlight the amazing progress made, and jobs created by large organic farms like White Oak Pastures in Georgia. A huge amount of food could be produced organically which would both reduce emissions from fertilizers and create jobs. But this is not mentioned; instead we get a story about his dad reducing hamburger intake and a pitch for artificial meat, which are possibly not exactly industrial-scale solutions. He makes a pitch to stop deforestation and plant trees wherever possible, and I agree 100%. What needs more emphasis, in my opinion, is creating incentives for people to consume less, and to consume more wisely, because the traditional US consumption model for food cannot be sustained on a global level. Also, let’s stop cutting the trees we have, especially in the Amazon and Congo.
Then transportation is addressed, which turns out to be one of the easier areas to fix, though it depends on solving the energy production problem mentioned above. Fundamentally, all transportation except long-haul air transport and sea shipment needs to be electrified, and fossil fuel consumption for sea shipments can be greatly reduced. Lest we forget, 150 years ago all sea shipment was by sail, and there are pilot projects underway to supplement power with sail on cargo ships (not mentioned by this book, which instead discusses nuclear powered container ships….hmmm….what could go wrong, because, you know, big cargo ships never sink). Of course we need to convert to electric vehicles immediately, and that covers a huge chunk of what needs to be done. I wish he had talked about shifting more freight from trucks to trains, but I’m nit-picking.
Heating and cooling is covered next – again, I wish Bill had done more research. He briefly mentions the refrigerants used in A/C units, but he seems to not realize what a big deal those are; those refrigerants are among the most potent greenhouse gases on the planet, and they urgently need to be replaced with less problematic materials. The Drawdown project points to this as possibly the worst threat in terms of increasing warming, because a) these gases are so powerful as greenhouse gases, and b) because use of A/C is accelerating exponentially worldwide. Bill does talk about the need for greater efficiency and increased insulation in buildings, which are a critical first step, and both are low-hanging fruit.
Then adaptation. I wish he had spent more time on CO2 capture/sequestration technology, because we are going to need it badly (because we simply can’t get all this done fast enough). And one of the controversial approaches he discusses is sun-dimming, through particulate injection into the stratosphere. Here’s where a real writer like one of the three I mentioned at the outset might have helped him, because this subject needs to be handled delicately, mindfully, with consciousness of the risk involved. Gates makes the absolutely valid point that we better figure out how to do the sun-dimming dance without causing SnowPiercer results, and we better figure it out in less than ten years. We are a bit like the guy on the third floor of a burning building and the staircases are blocked. Is the better choice to jump, or is it better to wait for the fire department to put out the fire? It’s a tough decision. ***Update as of June 2022: sucking CO2 out of the air and sequestering it underground is looking a bit more problematic these days, not because it’s not possible, but because of the enormous cost of doing it. So instead, perhaps spend that money on a faster conversion to non-CO2 producing transportation, AC, etc.
Finally Mr. Gates talks about government involvement in solutions, and frankly I got the impression he was trying to please everyone, and not anger Republicans in particular. He would do better to commit a big chunk of his fortune to defeating every Republican lawmaker who continues to scoff at climate change; McConnell, Inhofe, and Cruz would be good seats to target, for starters. Sorry, but it’s too late in the day to play nice with idiots who are putting our grandchildren’s futures at risk.
So, to sum up, I’m glad Bill Gates wrote this book. If nothing else, it brings renewed attention to the subject. It is a readable, only occasionally boring, book; all in all, not bad. I do wish he had made bold, precisely calculated proposals to solve the issues ahead of us, and I wish he had avoided self-promotion entirely, because that’s a bad look for billionaires. He makes an excellent point about investment to get to carbon neutral by 2050, i.e., 2050 is tomorrow in infrastructure terms. The big things we build today will still be in use in 2050, so we need to choose wisely now, not in ten years.
In re-reading the chapters to do this review, my opinion of the book went up a bit. I do like the organization of the material, so I would recommend this book, but I would also recommend about five others to supplement it, and I’d like Bill to increase his reading on the subject as well. He is now a key player, and he needs to collaborate with the really smart people who are working extremely hard to avoid catastrophe. I hope he will devote his energy and fortune to that.
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